Evolution or revolution: Assessing the global challenges of modern warfare? • FRANCE 24 English

La rapidité de la technologie de l'advance en la drone wars, guidé par l'artificial intelligence en Ukraine et dans le monde, a changé la face de la conflite. Et il y a question de la question de la change, c'est une évolution ou c'est une révolution de warfare ? C'est cause de toutes sortes de maladies pour les gouvernements mondiales, et en particulier en Europe maintenant, les choix de ce qu'on investisse billions en, en l'immediate future.

Le multi-award-winning Wall Street journal correspondent, Jaroslav Trofimov, a été investigé la question de la question de la question de la transformation de l'advance et de l'advance. Et si investir billions en tanks, en planes, en warships, en la battlefield, il va devenir l'équivalent de buying horses et arrows en l'eve de machine-guns et howitzers. Pour la question de l'advance, on va passer à Dubai.

On va passer à Jaroslav, c'est bien à voir vous. C'est bien à voir, Jaroslav. C'est bien à voir.

C'est bien à voir, Jaroslav Trofimov, le chef de l'advance de l'advance de la Wall Street Journal. Il est l'auteur de No Country for Love. Il est aussi l'auteur de Our Enemies Will Vanish, le russe de l'advance de l'advance de l'advance de l'advance.

Et aussi, le siege de Mecca. Maintenant, on va à la pointe de votre piece. Vous avez une profondeur, et il y a des milliards de dollars, vous parlez de l'advance, de l'advance de l'advance, de l'advance, de l'advance, de l'advance, de l'advance, de l'advance.

Et vous posez cette question de commenter-en-dance qu'il peut être useless en comparaison. Et ce conclusion vous avez eu venu ? Vous savez, c'est très élevé à dire si c'est une révolution ou une révolution.

Et souvent, les révolutions sont seulement apparent quand elles se passent. Donc, je pense que ce qui est clair pour tous les membres, pour les gouvernements, pour les militaires, pour les entreprises de l'advance, c'est que l'advance de l'advance est extrêmement, extrêmement très élevé à l'advance. Et c'est parce que la guerre entre Russie et Ukraine qui a été passé pour 4 ans et demi, qui a force les Ukrainiens, les Russes et les pays qui sont en train de l'advance de l'advance de l'advance, à vraiment de l'advance.

Et à la même temps, nous avons aussi vu une révolution technologique qui est ennoblée de tout ça. Et donc, je pense que un grand déjeuner est que l'artificial intelligence et l'autonomie sont devenus plus et plus importants dans le battlefield. Right now, in the occupied part of southern Ukraine, there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of autonomous drones that are roaming the highways and using the AI-enabled cameras to recognize Russian fuel tanks, Russian military vehicles to pursue them.

For now, there is still a human in the loop that is making the final decision, but a lot of this hunt has been already automated. And we also see with the changes in the basic military doctrine with the application of things such as artillery. You know, remember, we used to talk two, three years ago about how important it is for European countries, for the US to ramp up the production of artillery shells because it was an artillery war early in this conflict.

Well, guess what? Now, artillery is not really used that much in the battlefield because the range of the howitzer, which is 30, 40 kilometers, is smaller than the range of the drones. So, these artillery guns can fire one or two shots and then very often destroy it.

So, you're seeing all these changes. It's also, however, not clear what will be the next iteration because every six months technologies change and maybe there will be an answer to drones. Maybe there will be something else in the next few years.

And I think the lesson that everybody is learning from this is that you have to be able to be very flexible. So, every military, every defense ministry, every defense company have to be able to take the technologies that are developing in these battlefields and to adopt them within weeks, sometimes, within months because a lot of this weaponry becomes obsolete very quickly now. Let me talk about tanks, Yaroslav, because I wonder, I think a lot of people are wondering that the speed of the warfare here, to what extent are they still used on the battlefield?

Well, if you look at the battlefield in Ukraine, they're not really used that much. They're used sometimes hidden as artillery pieces, but, you know, in this new kind of war where every movement is seen by hundreds, sometimes thousands of sensors, you know, these tanks get picked off well before they arrive at the front line, so well before they can be of any use by swarms of drones. and so, you know, the Russians have still continued to send tank columns until last year, but it's very, very rare, and I guess there is no place more dangerous now in the battlefield than next to a tank.

Now, the question is, what will happen next? Will the tanks become autonomous? Will there be kind of drone tanks?

Will the tanks be used because of the armor to transport unmanned aerial vehicles and sort of the flying drones? So, all these weapon systems will evolve, over time and become something else? The same goes for planes and is there a future for manned aircraft?

Right now, you know, communications issues require a pilot to be there because they're not that stable, but with the development of artificial intelligence, will there be a need for a piloted aircraft? And some companies like Helsing in Germany, they've already tested flying fighter jets like the Swedish Gripen using autonomy. so all this is a big issue because when governments are investing all these hundreds of billions now, especially in Europe, and it's built up, they have to make plans for 10, 15 years ahead.

And if we look, I mean, there is a solid parallel here because it is a very profound question and it sounds, you know, obvious when you raise it because the speed of change in a war, if we go back to the First World War, if we go back to cavalries, you know, they were a thing right at the start. I think the Germans had something like 100,000 strong and they were used for pushing the front lines and suddenly they, what, they disappeared within a year. You know, it's our history books tell us that, you know, those major armies, they realise how quickly and with the machine guns dominating.

And to that parallel, I just touch upon that for us because one thing that strikes me is President Zelensky, what, a few days ago, he was in Ireland, he was asked, it wasn't a tank, but it was effectively an armoured personnel character. I think it was a 27 RG-32M light tactical armoured vehicles, to be precise. He said he wouldn't take them.

Thanks, but no thanks because the refurb cost needed is better to spend them on drones instead. Well, yeah, the whole arithmetic of the war is changing and just going back to the example of artillery, you know, an artillery shell, a domed shell, costs about 7,000 euros in Europe now and you need many of them to hit a target and they don't go very far. Well, you know, a drone that is guided by AI and I think, oh, 150 kilometres now costs so maybe 17, 20,000 euros and they arrives right on the target.

So you suddenly are much more efficient for a lot less money with this new technology. But again, all these things coexist because drones don't necessarily fly in bad weather so you still need artillery and if you look at the history, well, you know, gunpowder and horses, you know, coexisted for a very long time, you know, for two or three centuries and so there will be some of the existing systems, existing technologies that will move into the future of warfare. The question is how and how will they be adopted and integrated with all this new world of where everybody is seen in the battlefield because you have sensors everywhere and where decisions are more and more autonomous because the speed with which AI can pilot a drone is much faster than the speed of a human.

I want to mention something which you can take us into a little bit more because we've got this vast kill zone in what used to be the front line and thanks to Dom Nichols on Ukraine, the latest, on the Telegraph, a friend of this program like you on The World This Week often, he points to something that you may have seen this as an open source analyst called Dead Districts who's been quoting recently his Russian military blogger from the front line called Romanov and he's been describing a new tactic used by Ukrainian forces to get through the so-called kill zone so this is his note basically to other Russians he's talked about basically single movements vehicle movements are fairly rarely encountered now in comparison, he said, to infantry personnel moving light, moving quickly to covert positions and he gives an example of it basically saying that personnel are moving through the kill zone, they're carrying very light equipment and then supplies are being delivered by air so this is not basically a run-down position where the troops are exhausted, they are picking up they're basically armour, drones, heavy weapons, Starlink satellite as well, equipment, this apparently is a drone it's called the Baba Yerba drone after receiving it the teams make the push so we're seeing this basically complete transformation of movement and it's surprising the Russians is that your understanding? I mean, absolutely but you know this has been a case now for several months and not just for the Ukrainians side look at the past of warfare if you had 20-30 soldiers hold up in a building encircled in a town they would have to surrender within days or weeks because they would run out of water and ammunition well in the Ukrainian occupied once occupied city of Kupiansk there was such a small unit of Russian troops hold up for close to a year because the Russians were able to resupply them with drones using these drones that would drop ammunition, drop food, drop water and it took a very long time for Ukrainian defenders to be able to clear out that neighbourhood and so all these basic concepts of warfare are being changed by these new technologies such as how do you encircle a city if you can resupply it with drones to the extent of the question evolution versus revolution for those you spoke to experts for those professors those within the industry in the military industry where are they sitting right now is there a real split about whether this is a revolution we're seeing in warfare well I think it doesn't really matter is it a revolution or revolution everybody knows you have to adjust to the reality everybody knows that it's not so much the technology that is important right now but the speed with which you could tweak and adjust this technology just as your enemy comes up with something new and so this ability to be fast is going to determine who's going to win the next wars and I think on this there's an agreement obviously there are some companies you know the legacy defense giants that have the order books filled up for the next 10-15 years and they are finding it very hard to move quickly and there are others a lot of startups that are growing up that have grown up as a result of these wars that are operating very differently and in effect what is happening also because of the war in Ukraine is that your weapon is now becoming almost like a subscription you know if you remember you used to buy Microsoft Office and it was a product and then now all of a sudden it's an annual subscription well the same becomes with weapons because of the speed of change and they need to adjust them constantly so defense companies increasingly are offering this sort of model and it works really well in Ukraine because in Ukraine you have a system where individual brigades can work directly with weapons manufacturers they can basically score points through the military action and then convert these coins into cash and then have representatives of defense firms on the front line working with them in sort of symbiosis and I think that is the future of the military industry because you cannot just sell a system and then you know wash your hands of it because it will become obsolete very fast one thing that you point out in your piece which I find fascinating just some of the specific examples of the development so autonomous Ukrainian operated drones these are supplied by a German manufacturing company Helsing they patrol the highways of occupied southern Ukraine and basically is this right they're looking for targets fuel trucks using AI pattern recognition and then they pursue them on their own entirely separate to human operation once they've been authorized by the operator right it's not just the Helsing I mean there are several other companies doing this it's just one of the manufacturers but there is a fleet of these drones and they've been instrumental not just in cutting off Russian logistics to Crimea and making it very difficult for the Russian military to operate there but also in weakening the front line of the Russian troops because it's harder and harder to resupply them and so and that's probably the reason for why Ukraine has been able to reverse the Tether 4 in the last several months because it suddenly extended the kill zone in effect from 30-40 kilometres to 150 maybe 200 and what you do within this piece often we don't get to to see because we don't always grant the interviews is look and speak to the AI chiefs so you had a conversation with Louis Mosley at Palantir tell me about that well you know I mean Palantir is very involved in the Ukrainian war effort as it is involved in the Israeli and American campaigns against Iran and you know leaders of Palantir have come to Kiev to meet President Zelensky and you know for Ukraine it's very important to be able to also use AI and technologies to operate and create the target lists also for the long range campaign because let's not forget that in addition to these middle range drones Ukraine is also firing you know several hundred drones deep into Russia striking refineries striking military targets all of these drones have to plot the movements around the Russian air defense bubbles around known Russian capabilities and so all this is using a lot of data and I think you know what exactly companies that Palantir are doing is obviously not public but it is public that they are helping in their efforts you in Dubai it's not just obviously you touched upon this right at the start affecting Ukraine what we're seeing effectively playing out in the Strait of Hormuz this tug of war between Iran and the US whether you use the North Lane by Larik Island on the Iranian side or the south hugging the coast of Amman again it's drone warfare that is currently the key factor for the Iranians in the course of this conflict and actually it's interesting because we're seeing the very same technique used at the same time by the Iranians in the Strait of Hormuz where they do have presence on one of the shores to use drones to kind of strike passive vehicles they strike them with limited warheads they're not trying to sink them but to warn them off and to make sure nobody is traversing this Strait without the Iranian permission at the same time you're having a Ukrainian campaign in the Ozov Sea which is sort of you know used by the Russians to supply Crimea and the northern and western shores of the sea are occupied Ukrainian territory but Ukraine doesn't have any presence on that shore and still from more than 100 km away it's able to basically bring to a standstill all traffic there too because Russia stopped maritime services sort of commercial traffic in the Sea of Azov a couple of days ago as a result of several dozen Russian vessels being hit there by Ukrainian drones so this is a capability that is changing how you impose blockades it's changing how you manage war and conventional navies be it the US Navy in the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Sea or the Russian Black Sea Navy so far don't seem to be able to find a counter to this drone threat and to reopen those straits be it the Strait of Carriage or the Strait of Hormuz traffic going back to Ukraine briefly something else that people I think should know because this is fascinating that doesn't get reported is how very different the procurement system is for Ukraine compared to European procurement because you talk about in this piece brigades that are allocated quote e-points so based on how many Russian soldiers how many pieces of successful equipment are hit this can be converted into money how is this working? yeah exactly so it's a system called Brave One and it was set up in August last year but by the Ukrainian Defense Minister Mihaly Fedorov and basically every engagement and almost every engagement in this war is being filmed because there are always drones hovering in the air and so it's easy for military units such as brigades or regiments to document most of their hits and so then there is a system under which these brigades are allocated money and and they convert these points into the money and then is being paid to defense companies to provide equipment to them directly and obviously all the Ukrainian units and defense manufacturers are integrated into this single system called Delta so they have this kind of classified Amazon marketplace where they can use these points to purchase what they need but obviously it's not just purchasing in good because with this comes the visit by the engineers and the technicians to the front line and then they work together directly with these defense companies and this is mostly for drones and electronic warfare technologies and you know this has been really enabling the success of the Ukrainian military because of this speed of innovation it's baked in how it's yeah exactly that it's moving and it's not let me also it's also created this ecosystem where Ukraine has a large number yeah it has also created this ecosystem in which Ukraine has a very large number of various defense companies that are competing with each other and this is a mechanism for how the best products you know find the market share and get them adopted by other units which is a contrast to what the Russians are trying to do because there you have a very centralized system of procurement this is sort of your classic you know big country military procurement system in which and that is the reason why the Russian military despite you know much closer relationship with China despite much better access to chips and electronics from China it still is lagging behind the Ukrainians when it comes to drone warfare it is it suggests how nimble it is when you hear or I hear from certain military chiefs in the UK or in France they might talk about getting permission via BAE systems or Boeing and things take time because you need official recognition rather than going through smaller outfits so many independent outfits that are growing Yaroslav it's always great to talk to you a quick word before we depart before you go on what you're making of this reshuffle the sudden ousting or resignation of the prime minister what's your take well it is definitely very sudden and I think the biggest questions Ukrainians are asking themselves now is will the defense minister who's been so successful in this job stay there and as your correspondent has said it depends on what happens in the Ukrainian parliament at the end of the day however you know in the Ukrainian presidential system during wartime pretty much the entire power remains with the president Zelensky and so in the Ukrainian system you know being moved from minister to advisor in the presidential administration is actually a promotion and so I think the general lines not much will change no matter who's the next prime minister Yaroslav it's always good to talk to you thank you for your time this evening thank you great to be back thank you chief foreign affairs correspondent for Wall Street Journal and author of no country for you